The 2024 general election campaign is well and truly underway, and it’s been quite a mixed bag so far. The Conservatives grabbed headlines with their national service and ‘triple lock plus’ policy announcements that may leave young people feeling what their side of the deal is. We’ve seen the Liberal Democrats already reach that point in their campaign, with leader Ed Davey seeming on his own gap year, being recorded falling into Windermere whilst paddleboarding, riding a bike down a steep hill in Wales, and even sliding down a waterslide in Somerset.
Labour for their most part have held off announcing any new controversial policies, perhaps thinking their route to No10 and a parliamentary majority is to just not be the Conservatives. Many political strategists will know, when your opponent is imploding, it’s probably best to let them. If Michael Foot’s defeat in 1983 was due his manifesto being dubbed the ‘longest suicide note in history’, then the Conservatives (and the SNP north of the border) are currently suffering from death by a thousand cuts.
There have been small nuggets of policy on development, but it’s all quite bare bones compared to the juicy meat us politicos like to get our teeth into. With the news that planning permission for new houses and conversions across England had fallen to a record low in the last 14 years, many expected housing and development to be much further up on the agenda.
The Conservatives have agreed to continue with no mandatory housebuilding targets for local authorities after they were scrapped in previous years. They have also committed to restrictions on time extension agreements between councils and applicants on planning decisions, and performance league tables for time taken to make planning decisions – whilst before the election, Michael Gove prioritised the London boroughs for the roll-out of DLUHC’s new planning super-squad, indicative of a potential Conservative government’s strategic approach to planning assistance.
Labour have taken the exact opposite approach, with the proposals for mandatory housebuilding targets for local authorities and a commitment to build 1.5 million new homes over a five-year period. They say that they will achieve this with new towns, the locations of which will be chosen by the end of a potential first year in government. This policy is particularly interesting as it’s one that that was launched by the post-war Labour government to help deal with overcrowding in London and other big cities, and helped to create Milton Keynes, Welwyn Garden City, Stevenage and others. They have also gone a step further than the Conservatives by promising design standards for “gentle urban development” and planning passports for developers which meet design standards, allowing easier brownfield development. To help manage the spread of development and also to start lowering the temperature of debate around development, they have announced the creation of a new ‘grey belt’ land class for poor quality areas of the green belt with requirement for at least 50% affordable housing.
Despite these announcements from the two main political parties, Keir Starmer chose not to feature housing in his six steps to transform the country, and similarly, housing is absent from Rishi Sunak’s five pledges. The Conservatives have been in a difficult situation, where many suggest the electorate are just not listening to them anymore, so no matter what they say, they will struggle to win some voters over. So far in this campaign, we have seen parties focus on defence, pensions, VAT on private schools, immigration, and the NHS. Yet, planning is still yet to feature heavily.
Perhaps Keir Starmer is holding off saying anything too radical on housing as he may well win seats in areas where residents are more resistant to local development, as an attempt to keep his powder dry. Labour’s ultimate goal may be to secure a majority and govern the country for the next 5 years, but deep down will also be looking to deal some real flesh wounds to the Conservative Party by displacing some of their more senior members. According to the You Gov poll released a few days ago, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordant, Johnny Mercer, Mark Harper and Mel Stride, are all under threat from a Labour win, meanwhile Jeremy Hunt, Alex Chalk and Gillian Keegan are under similar pressure from the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives are already losing some of their biggest names with Brandon Lewis, Chris Heaton-Harris, Kwasi Kwarteng, Dominic Raab, and of course the current Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Michael Gove all announcing they will not be standing in the upcoming election. Labour at this point is in such a commanding lead that it makes sense to not risk the potential blowback from a controversial policy or tie themselves down to commitments they may want to renege on when in power. (Keir Starmer knows this well from his leadership campaign)
The first leadership debate between Starmer and Sunak didn’t reveal any surprises. Both leaders failed to mention housing until very end of the final audience question. Rishi Sunak merely said we will build but in the right places, whereas Keir Starmer recommitted to his 1.5 million houses target. Starmer went on to add he would reform the planning laws and look to place more power over housing in control of the directly elected ‘metro mayors’. This decision makes sense with the Conservatives down to just Ben Houchen in Tees Valley after May’s local elections, but the devil is in the detail.
Whilst planning hasn’t headlined the Pyramid Stage of political discourse yet, it is certainly still in the periphery. With more debates to come, and manifestos still yet to launch, parties and their leaders will be become cornered by voters for more concrete proposals when it comes to planning and development. Perhaps one party will unveil a new radical development policy in an attempt to twist and win more support, and stranger things have happened in General Election campaigns, but at this stage both parties are keeping their cards close to their chest on this critical issue.
Redwood Consulting has been delivering a series of talks on the politics of planning. If you are interested in receiving one of these briefings please contact Gabriel Abulafia, Redwood’s Head of Political & Stakeholder Engagement, at gabriel@redwoodconsulting.co.uk or on 07860 866 884.