Apparently …

 

… at the opening of a new Parliamentary session sometime in the first half of the 20th Century, a newly-elected Tory MP, eagerly taking up a place in the House of Commons pointed to the benches opposite and said to Winston Churchill, “So, that’s the enemy”. Churchill is supposed to have replied, “No son, that’s the Opposition”, and then pointed to the benches behind and said, “This is the enemy”.

 

There are many supposed quotes from Churchill – some more provable than others. I use this one here because it highlights something that will become a significant factor in our politics now that Keir Starmer is our Prime Minister – that the Tories are now a greatly-reduced force and that the critiques and opposition to his Government are much more likely to be coming from the left than from the right. With all the inevitable references to the election of the Blair Government in 1997 I feel that some of the experience I had then, as a Labour MP’s researcher and caseworker, may well be germane today: Like Starmer, Blair’s support was broad but it was not deep and the Labour membership were, in general, politically to the left of him (as they are now of Starmer). The huge expectations that Labour members and voters had of Blair led, very quickly, to strong criticism that he wasn’t doing enough for the NHS, enough for schools, he should be raising taxes etc etc. The size of his Parliamentary majority (179) only increased expectations and I’d expect the same to be true now.

 

After a brief honeymoon (about 2 months) this discontent became evident when we were canvassing, during Labour Party meetings and during conversations with friends and family. It became so extreme that, after a while, I stopped mentioning  that I worked for a Labour MP when I went to parties/bars (I was 25 – so these were the main features of my life then).

 

Moving back to the new Labour Government, it’s fair to say that people haven’t warmed to Keir Starmer in his 4 years as Labour leader and during the General Election campaign. He has to contend with starting the role of Prime Minister with this low rating and also an inheritance far worse than Blair had to contend with: An economy that has flatlined for more than a decade, crumbling public realm, a climate crisis, soaring national debt and a housing crisis. Perhaps the greatest challenge is that of expectations and the fact that, as a country, we have for years expected a lifestyle and public services that we cannot afford. Labour has also imposed a fiscal straitjacket on itself by ruling out rises to Income Tax, VAT and National Insurance, which between them account for 75% of the Government’s income. Managing the politics of this is going to be a significant challenge.

 

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer, have been criticised for a lack of clarity and detail on their programme for government. For the purposes of the development industry, however, I think there are some policy areas where the Party has been clear about what it wants:

 

  1. Housebuilding: Labour has been crystal clear that it intends to boost housebuilding from the earliest possible moment in government. It plans to make major housing announcements quickly – including moves to develop new towns, re-introducing house building targets and to push local authorities into putting local plans in place.
  2. Economic policy: A new word, securonomics, entered the political lexicon back in March when Rachel Reeves delivered the Mais Lecture – regarded as a leading event for the banking and finance community of the City of London. Her speech made clear one of the key lessons that Labour has drawn from the Brexit upheaval – namely that people expect their government to protect them from the worst excesses of globalisation.
  3. Growth: Given the limits it has imposed on its options to raise taxes, Reeves’ strong focus is on growth. She has also made clear that she regards the planning system as “the single greatest obstacle to our economic success. Our planning system is a barrier to opportunity, to growth and a barrier to home ownership too.” Along with changes to the planning system, Labour sees devolution and working with directly-elected mayors as a part of the solution to delivering new homes and growth.

 

So that’s what they intend to do: One of the many challenges they face is having put so many of their eggs in the basket of economic growth. Even if they deliver growth it will take time – and, in the meantime, they will face pressure from within the Labour Party for more spending as well as pressure from political opponents on the left, such as the Greens with their new MPs and 2 million votes. This is in addition to the political capital they will have to spend on, for example, reforming the NHS. The new Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has laid the groundwork for this and could argue that he has a mandate for some radical changes – though he and the Government will need to expend significant political capital in seeing the changes through.

 

So, in summary, the new Government has stated that it will put in place, at an early stage, the framework for the development industry to play the fullest possible part in delivering growth. Having done so, they want the industry to help them by stepping up and delivering the homes and the regeneration. The new Government is going to face significant political battles – many of which will be with people supposedly on the same side.

 

Managing the politics of the expectations being thrown at them will be a major challenge and they are likely to look on the development industry as a friend who can help them to deliver change. If that seems far-fetched, consider the broader context: The far right is surging in France and other European countries, the Americans might re-elect Donald Trump and, in Britain, Nigel Farage has finally been elected to Parliament and has said he will come for Labour supporters in future campaigns. Starmer may well be centrism’s last chance. If he fails the electorate may look to other, darker, forces.